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The estimation accuracy curve: how your estimates improve when you measure them

March 10, 20265 min read

Most people guess project time based on gut feel and optimism. Track planned vs actual for four weeks and something consistent happens: the gap halves.

Week one of tracking planned vs actual is always humbling. You planned 8 hours for a feature. You tracked 13.5. You planned 2 hours for a client call and prep. It was 3.8. Almost every estimate was under by 30–50%.

Week four looks different. Not because you've become a faster worker. Because you've accumulated ground truth about how your work actually flows.

Why it compounds

Better estimates have a compounding effect. When you quote a project accurately, you don't under-deliver on budget. You don't write off hours at the end. You don't resent the project by week three. Accurate estimates are the foundation of sustainable freelancing.

Trakby's planned vs actual chart makes this feedback loop visible. Every day you plan, track, and then see the gap — and over time, you watch that gap close.

Experience the loop yourself

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